So How Much Is That Free Agent In The Window?

One thing that always drives me bonkers every year is that when the Elias Sports Bureau releases its player rankings (which in turn determine the free agent compensation), they always list them by league and position (you can find the lists here for both the American and National League). Furthermore they release the rankings for all the major league players rather than just the free agents for this year. Therefore, in order to determine what compensation a team gets you have to sort through multiple lists and non-free agent players which takes time and patience that I don't really possess.

Therefore as a public service to all, I put together complete lists for the Type A, B, and C free agents. They're listed by their Elias Ranking and the number next to their name is their respective ranking at their position. If you want a review of the player compensation rules, I've listed them here.

Why am I interested in this? Well, next Tuesday, the Mets have to decide whether to offer Al Leiter (if he doesn't sign beforehand), Richard Hidalgo, Mike DeJean, and Ricky Bottalico arbitration. If the Mets were to offer all four arbitration and all four ended up signing elsewhere, the Mets could end up with a draft pick bonanza. This, however, is contingent on several things:

1) If a team picks in the first half of the first round, they can't lose their first round pick. In this case, the team gets the second round pick instead. The Mets, with the ninth pick overall this year (scroll way down for the draft order), can't lose their pick no matter who they sign.

2) If a team signs more than one free agent (and loses more than one draft pick), the team with the higher ranked player gets the higher draft pick. Ask BA has a good example of this:

The chronology of the transactions doesn't matter. The Giants signed Omar Vizquel 16 days before they grabbed Armando Benitez. Both are Type A free agents, with Benitez (85.478) outranking Vizquel (66.234). So the Marlins wind up with San Francisco's first-rounder (No. 22 overall) and the Indians got bumped down to the Giants' second-rounder. Florida and Cleveland also receive supplemental first-round choices.

So let's say Florida signs Leiter away from the Mets with the Mets getting compensation. With no other signings, the Mets will then get the Marlins first rounder (16th overall, the highest first rounder they can get) and a supplemental pick.

However let's say that then the Marlins decide to sign Rheal Cormier for the bullpen. Since Cormier (82.431) has a higher ranking than Leiter (82.333), Philadelphia would get the first rounder instead and the Mets would only get their second rounder. Remember these rankings take the past two years and position into consideration. Positions with less depth generally produce higher rankings.

From the first list, you can see all the players ranked above Leiter. Looking at the list, you can see it would much better for the Marlins to sign Leiter rather than the Phillies or the Yankees simply because they are much less likely to sign any of the players listed above him. Richard Hidalgo, who finds himself towards the bottom of the A list, has a much greater chance of producing only a second round pick.

The last thing these lists tell us is the order of the compensation picks at the end of their respective rounds. Therefore, should both teams offer compensation, the Blue Jays would get pick #31 for losing Carlos Delgado while Boston would get pick #32 should the Mets sign Pedro (Boston would also get the Mets second round pick).

So what's the best the Mets can do with draft picks next year? If they offer arbitration to all their free agents, they all end up signing elsewhere, and the Mets get the best possible compensation from their new teams, the Mets could end up with four first round picks (three plus their own), two first round supplementals, and a second round supplemental. Even if the Mets sign two additional Type A free agents (say Carlos Beltran and Richie Sexson), they will still only lose their normal second and third rounders. We're talking Moneyball draft territory here.

In reality, it will probably be a happy medium, with the Mets picking up a first rounder and giving away at least one of their lower rounders. This is what the Hot Stove is all about and it all starts next Tuesday. Woohoo!

2004 Type A Free Agent Rankings
1. Carlos Delgado	98.333
3. Pedro Martinez	94.444
3. Roger Clemens	92.25
6. Carlos Beltran	91.011
4. Edgar Renteria	89.655
5. Adrian Beltre	86.772
5. Russ Ortiz	86.667
8. Magglio Ordonez	85.75
7. Nomar Garciaparra	85.714
8. Armando Benitez	85.478
3. Jason Varitek	85.294
11. Moises Alou	84.719
9. Jeff Kent	83.673
12. J.D. Drew	83.371
10. Placido Polanco	82.653
10. Rheal Cormier	82.431
11. Al Leiter	82.333
13. Brad Radke	80.754
14. Esteban Loaiza	79.861
14. Carl Pavano	78.917
15. David Wells	78.667
16. Woody Williams	78.5
16. Vinny Castilla	76.72
14. Wilson Alvarez	76.693
15. Ugueth Urbina	76.366
20. Steve Finley	75.73
17. Dan Miceli	75.599
13. Orlando Cabrera	75.325
7. Damian Miller	74.79
18. Matt Morris	74.167
20. Kevin Millwood	73.833
7. Mike Matheny	72.973
15. Corey Koskie	72.222
26. Richard Hidalgo	72.135
20. Troy Percival	71.46
22. Scott Williamson	70.754
30. Edgar Martinez	70
26. Steve Kline	69.684
28. Odalis Perez	69
31. Matt Mantei	68.678
33. Jeromy Burnitz	68.315
25. Derek Lowe	68.254
26. Chris Hammond	68.19
34. Richie Sexson	68.148
37. Cal Eldred	67.14
22. Royce Clayton	66.502
21. Omar Vizquel	66.234
38. Kent Mercker	66.223
24. M. Grudzielanek	65.306
25. Tony Batista	64.815
22. Miguel Cairo	64.532
40. Jaret Wright	63.946
43. D. Hermanson	62.94
44. Paul Shuey	62.762
35. Jeff Nelson	62.282

2004 Type B Free Agent Rankings
34. Cory Lidle	65.333
35. Matt Clement	65.083
40. Tino Martinez	64.167
27. Barry Larkin	64.039
29. Rich Aurilia	63.054
32. Todd Walker	62.245
43. B.J. Surhoff	62
36. Ron Villone	61.315
34. Deivi Cruz	60.837
38. Terry Adams	60.089
27. Roberto Alomar	59.606
47. A. Alfonseca	59.184
48. Mike DeJean	59.154
28. Cristian Guzman	59.091
30. Eric Young	58.374
41. Chris Carpenter	58.333
52. Antonio Osuna	57.616
43. Curtis Leskanic	57.414
53. Steve Reed	57.025
51. John Olerud	56.667
12. Dan Wilson	55.882
33. Jose Valentin	55.844
44. Paul Wilson	55.833
44. Hideo Nomo	55.833
53. Juan Gonzalez	55.75
37. Alex Gonzalez	55.665
55. Danny Bautista	55.506
13. Greg Myers	55.462
38. Jon Lieber	54.563
59. Elmer Dessens	54.333
52. Esteban Yan	54.143
16. Todd Pratt	54.054
38. Jose Hernandez	53.695
17. Brent Mayne	53.668
51. Jose Lima	53.667
42. O. Hernandez	53.571
61. Gabe White	53.327
14. Doug Mirabelli	53.151
41. Robin Ventura	52.381
42. Craig Counsell	52.217
55. Ismael Valdez	52.167
64. Dave Burba	51.878
66. Chad Fox	51.464
16. Gregg Zaun	51.05
69. Jose Mesa	49.926
71. Todd Jones	49.364
18. Brook Fordyce	48.319

2004 Type C Free Agent Rankings
53. Eric Milton	53.083
38. Desi Relaford	52.709
61. Julio Franco	51.852
56. Shawn Estes	51.417
57. Kris Benson	51.167
63. T. Hollandsworth	50.112
61. Jim Mecir	49.238
62. John Halama	48.867
75. Ricky Bottalico	48.388
65. John Mabry	48.315
76. R. Hernandez	48.24
63. Al Levine	47.938
65. Bob Wickman	47.306
19. Sandy Alomar Jr.	47.059
68. Ben Grieve	46.742
22. Todd Greene	46.332
41. Troy Glaus	46.032
47. R. E. Martinez	45.813
72. Jermaine Dye	45.75
23. Mike Redmond	44.981
83. Todd Van Poppel	44.928
48. Tony Womack	44.898
86. Rudy Seanez	44.366
75. Travis Lee	43.333
49. Aaron Sele	43.254
71. Carlos Baerga	42.963
20. Henry Blanco	40.546