Vorpal Swords

Jacob Luft over at Sports Illustrated takes a look at the new Mets lineup by VORP (PECOTA projection) and position and comes away impressed:

	2004		2005
Pos.	Player	VORP	Player	VORP (Proj.)
C	Jason Phillips	-5.3	Mike Piazza	24.2
1B	Mike Piazza	29.9	Minky	12.7
2B	Jose Reyes	5.2	Kazuo Matsui	25.9
3B	David Wright	21.2	David Wright	32.4
SS	Kazuo Matsui	23.7	Jose Reyes	12.7
LF	Cliff Floyd	20	Cliff Floyd	23.1
CF	Mike Cameron	27	Carlos Beltran	51.6
RF	Richard Hidalgo	7.4	Mike Cameron	24.4
	Totals	129.1		207

Losses: Jason Phillips, Richard Hidalgo
Additions: Minky, Carlos Beltran
Estimated VORP differential: +77.9

A couple things to point out here:

1) The Mets lineup last year was, for lack of a better word, vomitous.

2) However, for 2005, PECOTA predicts improvements at every position but 1B and SS

Hitting rock bottom may suck in the current season but it certainly gives one hope for the future (oh, and Carlos Beltran gives a wee bit of hope as well). One can easily expect improvements from David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Kaz Matsui. Minky upgrades first over Jason Phillips (who should have a bounce back year as a backup) and Beltran is, well, god.

But do the Mets improvements catch them up to the rest of the NL East? Let's take a look at the changes in the other lineups using PECOTA. For the sake of my sanity, I'm only using the primary player at each position rather than adding in the backups. I know this doesn't work well for platoons but we're looking for gross differences here anyway.

Braves

	2004		2005
Pos.	Player	VORP	Player	VORP (Proj.)
C	Johnny Estrada	41	Johnny Estrada	20.5
1B	Adam LaRoche	19.1	Adam LaRoche	19.9
2B	Marcus Giles	35.9	Marcus Giles	35.8
3B	Chipper Jones	32	Chipper Jones	30.3
SS	Rafael Furcal	38	Rafael Furcal	28.3
LF	Charles Thomas	12.9	Brian Jordan	-0.7
CF	Andruw Jones	36.6	Andruw Jones	39.2
RF	J.D. Drew	78.7	Raul Mondesi	7.6
	Totals	294.2		180.9

Losses: JD Drew, Charles Thomas
Additions: Brian Frickin' Jordan, Raul Mondesi
Estimated VORP differential: -114.7

Marlins

	2004		2005
Pos.	Player	VORP	Player	VORP (Proj.)
C	Mike Redmond	3.7	Paul LoDuca	16.3
1B	Hee Seop Choi	27.5	Carlos Delgado	42.5
2B	Luis Castillo	33.5	Luis Castillo	20.3
3B	Mike Lowell	53.9	Mike Lowell	33
SS	Alex Gonzalez	11.3	Alex Gonzalez	14.7
LF	Jeff Conine	20.1	Jeff Conine	9.8
CF	Juan Pierre	44.6	Juan Pierre	19.9
RF	Miguel Cabrera	54.4	Miguel Cabrera	43
	Totals	249		199.5

Losses: Mike Redmond, Hee Seop Choi
Additions: Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Delgado
Estimated VORP differential: -49.5

Phillies

	2004		2005
Pos.	Player	VORP	Player	VORP (Proj.)
C	Mike Lieberthal	26.8	Mike Lieberthal	22.8
1B	Jim Thome	60.3	Jim Thome	47.2
2B	Placido Polanco	31.5	Chase Utley	21.9
3B	David Bell	32.2	David Bell	4.9
SS	Jimmy Rollins	50.9	Jimmy Rollins	34.9
LF	Pat Burrell	21.8	Pat Burrell	19.7
CF	Marlon Byrd	-8.7	Kenny Lofton	10.6
RF	Bobby Abreu	83.8	Bobby Abreu	54.8
	Totals	298.6		216.8

Losses: Placido Polanco, Marlon Byrd
Additions: Kenny Lofton, Chase Utley
Estimated VORP differential: -81.8

Nationals

	2004		2005
Pos.	Player	VORP	Player	VORP (Proj.)
C	Brian Schneider	16.6	Brian Schneider	7.3
1B	Brad Wilkerson	48.2	Nick Johnson	22.9
2B	Jose Vidro	36.9	Jose Vidro	30
3B	Tony Batista	10.3	Vinny Castilla	0.1
SS	Orlando Cabrera	5.3	Cristian Guzman	9.7
LF	Termel Sledge	18.1	Brad Wilkerson	23.5
CF	Endy Chavez	14.5	Endy Chavez	10.5
RF	Juan Rivera	30.2	Jose Guillen	25
	Totals	180.1		129

Losses: Tony Batista, Orlando Cabrera, Termel Sledge, Juan Rivera
Additions: Nick Johnson, Vinny Castilla, Cristian Guzman, Jose Guillen
Predicted VORP differential: -51.1

2005 Totals:

1) Phillies 216.8, (-81.8)
2) Mets 207, (+77.9)
3) Marlins 199.5, (-49.5)
4) Braves 180.9, (-114.7)
5) Nationals 129, (-51.1)

Looking these over there are several things that stand out:

1) The Mets are the only NL East team with a positive differential, and would have one even if all of their youngsters failed to improve thanks largely to Mr. Beltran.

2) JD Drew is a huge loss to the Braves that they haven't replaced at all.

3) The declines in VORP for the Marlins and Phillies is based largely upon declines in players who had outstanding (Bobby Abreu) or breakout (Juan Pierre) years. These are players that could sustain those levels of production even though PECOTA projects them to come back to earth a bit. In fact, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see the Marlins or Phillies improve offensively next year at all.

4) Nationals of 2005, meet the Mets of 2004 and welcome to hell.

5) I hate Brian Jordan, even if he sucks.

So what's the bottom line to take away from all of this?

Out of all the teams in the NL East, the Mets have the most potential for improvement offensively.

Of course, offense is only half of the game. I'll take a look at the projections for the NL East starting rotations sometime soon...