Vorpal Swords, Part II

Quick note here: I've finally posted the answers to my Friday Diversion for those of you interested. Sorry it took me so long, but my body's still recovering from the twin hits of a weekend of skiing and a bout of the flu. And yes, I did ski even though I was sick and I still had a spectacular time. Anyhoo...

Jacob Luft now turns his attention to the NL rotations (using DIPS too). He ranks 'em, but let's take a look at their changes and PECOTA projections for next year.

We're going to play by the same rules as last time: Only the top five starters will be considered for VORP purposes. I know this sucks for the Nats who only had one pitcher, the rubber-armed Livan Hernandez, made 30+ starts but I really don't care. For fairness purposes though, I have listed the number of starts each pitcher made in 2004. Again, we're looking for gross differences here.

We'll start with the home towne team:

Mets

'04 Rotation	GS	'04 VORP	'05 Rotation	ERA	dERA	'05 VORP
Tom Glavine	33	42	1. Pedro Martinez	3.9	3.7	53.3
Steve Trachsel	33	25.8	2. Tom Glavine	3.6	4.41	12.2
Al Leiter	30	46.2	3. Kris Benson	4.31	3.87	13.6
Jae Seo	21	8.3	4. Steve Trachsel	4	4.91	9.3
Matt Ginter	14	3.4	5. Victor Zambrano	4.37	5.19	4.7
Totals	131	125.7				93.1

Losses: Al Leiter, Jae Seo, Matt Ginter
Additions: Pedro Martinez, Kris Benson, Victor Zambrano
Lucky Guys: Trachsel, Glavine
VORP Differential: -32.6

Braves

'04 Rotation	GS	'04 VORP	'05 Rotation	ERA	dERA	'05 VORP
Russ Ortiz	34	33.1	1. John Smoltz	2.76	2.75	20.8
John Thomson	33	34	2. Tim Hudson	3.53	3.58	31.8
Jaret Wright	32	40.3	3. Mike Hampton	4.28	4.47	9.5
Mike Hampton	29	24.4	4. John Thomson	3.72	3.93	16.3
Paul Byrd	19	16.2	5. Horacio Ramirez	2.39	5.01	7.4
Totals	147	148				85.8

Losses: Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright, Paul Byrd
Additions: Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Horatio Ramirez
Lucky Guys: Ramirez
VORP Differential: -62.2
(Note: Smoltz is projected here as a reliever. His VORP will probably double when projected for a starter's innings)

Marlins

'04 Rotation	GS	'04 VORP	'05 Rotation	ERA	dERA	'05 VORP
Dontrelle Willis	32	27.2	1. Al Leiter	3.21	4.98	14.9
Carl Pavano	31	62.4	2. Josh Beckett	3.79	3.7	32.3
Josh Beckett	26	28.3	3. A.J. Burnett	3.68	3.39	23.3
Brad Penny	21	34.1	4. Dontrelle Willis	4.02	4.02	31.2
A.J. Burnett	19	26.8	5. Ismael Valdez	5.19	5.84	4.7
Totals	129	178.8				106.4

Losses: Carl Pavano, Brad Penny
Additions: Al Leiter, Ismael Valdez
Lucky Guys: Leiter
VORP Differential: -72.4

Phillies

'04 Rotation	GS	'04 VORP	'05 Rotation	ERA	dERA	'05 VORP
Eric Milton	34	18.7	1. Jon Lieber	4.33	3.77	19.1
Brett Myers	31	-0.3	2. Randy Wolf	4.28	4.5	20.9
Kevin Millwood	25	9.3	3. Vicente Padilla	4.53	4.46	17.6
Randy Wolf	23	14.5	4. Cory Lidle	4.9	4.47	13.8
Vicente Padilla	20	10.9	5. Brett Myers	5.52	5.02	17.3
Totals	133	53.1				88.7

Losses: Eric Milton, Kevin Millwood
Additions: Jon Lieber, Cory Lidle
Lucky Guys: No one really
VORP Differential: +35.6

Nationals

'04 Rotation	GS	'04 VORP	'05 Rotation	ERA	dERA	'05 VORP
Livan Hernandez	35	58.3	1. Livan Hernandez	3.6	4.02	30.7
John Patterson	19	5	2. Tony Armas Jr.	4.88	5.73	6.6
Zach Day	19	21.7	3. Tomo Ohka	3.4	4.61	18.7
Sunny Kim	17	6.5	4. Esteban Loaiza	5.7	4.91	17.9
Tony Armas	16	5.1	5. Zach Day	3.93	4.68	11.2
Totals	106	96.6				85.1

Losses: John Patterson, Sunny Kim
Additions: Tomo Ohka, Esteban Loaiza
Lucky Guys: Armas, Ohka
VORP Differential: -11.5

2005 Summary
1. Marlins 106.4 (-72.4)
2. Mets 93.1 (-32.6)
3. Phillies 88.7 (+35.6)
4. Braves 85.8 (-62.2)*
5. Nationals 85.1 (-11.5)

*Expect this to rise about 20 or so once Smoltz' new projection comes out.

So what can we say about this?

1) The Phillies rotation in 2004 was like the Mets lineup: So bad, they have no where to go but up in 2005. In fact, they're the only NL East team projected to improve by VORP. Over at RLYW, I was quite surprised at how well the Phillies did in a simulation of the 2005 season. I'm now starting to see why.

2) PECOTA projects a huge year for Pedro Martinez and doesn't think much of Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano. Rick Peterson has to come through here. Even with an off-year, Mike Cameron had a significant effect on the Mets pitching staff if you look at the dERA of Steve Trachsel, Al Leiter, and Tom Glavine. This of course, bodes well for the Mets pitching staff in general and doesn't bode very well for the good Senator.

3) Livan Hernandez is literally carrying a team on his shoulder. And if it were to fall off...

4) If everyone stays healthy, the Marlins could have a scary good rotation. That's a big if, though.

5) I'll factor John Smoltz' projection in when it comes out...and I'll bet that the Braves will jump to the top of the rotation list. But not by much.

So where do we stand overall? Let's add the VORP totals for the lineups and rotations.

	Rotation	Lineup	Total
Marlins	106.4	199.5	305.9
Phillies	88.7	216.8	305.5
Mets	93.1	207	300.1
Braves	85.8	180.9	266.7
Nationals	85.1	129	214.1

Again, the Braves will probably go up by about 20 or so once Smoltz is factored in, making the top four slots awfully tight. All else being equal, it's going to come down to health this year.

Of course, everything else isn't equal and that's why I'll look at the bullpens and benches of the NL East once the rosters are set.